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Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article

Standard

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 : A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. / NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) ; Damsgaard, Camilla Trab; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Molbo, Drude; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 387, No. 10026, 2016, p. 1377-1396.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article

Harvard

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), Damsgaard, CT, Michaelsen, KF, Molbo, D, Mortensen, EL & Sørensen, TIA 2016, 'Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants' The Lancet, vol 387, no. 10026, pp. 1377-1396. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

APA

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), Damsgaard, C. T., Michaelsen, K. F., Molbo, D., Mortensen, E. L., & Sørensen, T. I. A. (2016). Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. The Lancet, 387(10026), 1377-1396. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

Vancouver

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), Damsgaard CT, Michaelsen KF, Molbo D, Mortensen EL, Sørensen TIA. Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants. The Lancet. 2016;387(10026):1377-1396. Available from, DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

Author

NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC) ; Damsgaard, Camilla Trab; Michaelsen, Kim F.; Molbo, Drude; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Sørensen, Thorkild I.A. / Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 : A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 387, No. 10026, 2016, p. 1377-1396.

Publication: Research - peer-reviewJournal article

Bibtex

@article{1e4eabcfc24646c29c4e8ec6eefa6621,
title = "Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: A pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.",
keywords = "Adolescent, Adult, Bayes Theorem, Body Mass Index, Developed Countries, Developing Countries, Female, Forecasting, Global Health, Humans, Male, Models, Statistical, Obesity, Prevalence, Thinness, Young Adult",
author = "{NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)} and Damsgaard, {Camilla Trab} and Michaelsen, {Kim F.} and Drude Molbo and Mortensen, {Erik Lykke} and Sørensen, {Thorkild I.A.}",
note = "CURIS 2016 NEXS 159",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X",
volume = "387",
pages = "1377--1396",
journal = "Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "TheLancet Publishing Group",
number = "10026",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014

T2 - Lancet

AU - NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)

AU - Damsgaard,Camilla Trab

AU - Michaelsen,Kim F.

AU - Molbo,Drude

AU - Mortensen,Erik Lykke

AU - Sørensen,Thorkild I.A.

N1 - CURIS 2016 NEXS 159

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

AB - BACKGROUND: Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.METHODS: We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18·5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), ≥40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.FINDINGS: We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21·3-22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m(2) (24·0-24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m(2) (21·7-22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m(2) (24·2-24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m(2) (28·6-29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m(2) (21·4-22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m(2) (31·5-32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5-17·4) to 8·8% (7·4-10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6-17·9) to 9·7% (8·3-11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8-29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9-29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4-4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7-12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1-7·8) to 14·9% (13·6-16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0-2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4-5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46-0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3-1·9) in women.INTERPRETATION: If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, Grand Challenges Canada.

KW - Adolescent

KW - Adult

KW - Bayes Theorem

KW - Body Mass Index

KW - Developed Countries

KW - Developing Countries

KW - Female

KW - Forecasting

KW - Global Health

KW - Humans

KW - Male

KW - Models, Statistical

KW - Obesity

KW - Prevalence

KW - Thinness

KW - Young Adult

U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30054-X

M3 - Journal article

VL - 387

SP - 1377

EP - 1396

JO - Lancet

JF - Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 10026

ER -

ID: 162603012