Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission: a global analysis
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Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission : a global analysis. / Xu, Ran; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Gupta, Marichi; DiGennaro, Catherine; Ghaffarzadegan, Navid; Amini, Heresh; Jalali, Mohammad S.
In: The Lancet. Planetary health, Vol. 5, No. 10, 2021, p. e671-e680.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Weather, air pollution, and SARS-CoV-2 transmission
T2 - a global analysis
AU - Xu, Ran
AU - Rahmandad, Hazhir
AU - Gupta, Marichi
AU - DiGennaro, Catherine
AU - Ghaffarzadegan, Navid
AU - Amini, Heresh
AU - Jalali, Mohammad S.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - BACKGROUND: Understanding how environmental factors affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission could inform global containment efforts. Despite high scientific and public interest and multiple research reports, there is currently no consensus on the association of environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To address this research gap, we aimed to assess the relative risk of transmission associated with weather conditions and ambient air pollution. METHODS: In this global analysis, we adjusted for the delay between infection and detection, estimated the daily reproduction number at 3739 global locations during the COVID-19 pandemic up until late April, 2020, and investigated its associations with daily local weather conditions (ie, temperature, humidity, precipitation, snowfall, moon illumination, sunlight hours, ultraviolet index, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, and pressure data) and ambient air pollution (ie, PM2·5, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and sulphur dioxide). To account for other confounding factors, we included both location-specific fixed effects and trends, controlling for between-location differences and heterogeneities in locations' responses over time. We built confidence in our estimations through synthetic data, robustness, and sensitivity analyses, and provided year-round global projections for weather-related risk of global SARS-CoV-2 transmission. FINDINGS: Our dataset included data collected between Dec 12, 2019, and April 22, 2020. Several weather variables and ambient air pollution were associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 3739 global locations. We found a moderate, negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures warmer than 25°C (a decrease of 3·7% [95% CI 1·9-5·4] per additional degree), a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, sulphur dioxide, and ozone. Results were robust to multiple assumptions. Independent research building on our estimates provides strong support for the resulting projections across nations. INTERPRETATION: Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects.None.
AB - BACKGROUND: Understanding how environmental factors affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission could inform global containment efforts. Despite high scientific and public interest and multiple research reports, there is currently no consensus on the association of environmental factors and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To address this research gap, we aimed to assess the relative risk of transmission associated with weather conditions and ambient air pollution. METHODS: In this global analysis, we adjusted for the delay between infection and detection, estimated the daily reproduction number at 3739 global locations during the COVID-19 pandemic up until late April, 2020, and investigated its associations with daily local weather conditions (ie, temperature, humidity, precipitation, snowfall, moon illumination, sunlight hours, ultraviolet index, cloud cover, wind speed and direction, and pressure data) and ambient air pollution (ie, PM2·5, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and sulphur dioxide). To account for other confounding factors, we included both location-specific fixed effects and trends, controlling for between-location differences and heterogeneities in locations' responses over time. We built confidence in our estimations through synthetic data, robustness, and sensitivity analyses, and provided year-round global projections for weather-related risk of global SARS-CoV-2 transmission. FINDINGS: Our dataset included data collected between Dec 12, 2019, and April 22, 2020. Several weather variables and ambient air pollution were associated with the spread of SARS-CoV-2 across 3739 global locations. We found a moderate, negative relationship between the estimated reproduction number and temperatures warmer than 25°C (a decrease of 3·7% [95% CI 1·9-5·4] per additional degree), a U-shaped relationship with outdoor ultraviolet exposure, and weaker positive associations with air pressure, wind speed, precipitation, diurnal temperature, sulphur dioxide, and ozone. Results were robust to multiple assumptions. Independent research building on our estimates provides strong support for the resulting projections across nations. INTERPRETATION: Warmer temperature and moderate outdoor ultraviolet exposure result in a slight reduction in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2; however, changes in weather or air pollution alone are not enough to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 with other factors having greater effects.None.
U2 - 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00202-3
DO - 10.1016/S2542-5196(21)00202-3
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34627471
AN - SCOPUS:85118159510
VL - 5
SP - e671-e680
JO - The Lancet Planetary Health
JF - The Lancet Planetary Health
SN - 2542-5196
IS - 10
ER -
ID: 283735283