TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-term exposure to moderate fine particulate matter concentrations and cause-specific mortality in an ageing society

AU - Lim, Youn-Hee

AU - Oh, Jongmin

AU - Han, Changwoo

AU - Bae, Hyun-Joo

AU - Kim, Soontae

AU - Jang, Yoonyoung

AU - Ha, Eunhee

AU - Hong, Yun-Chul

N1 - © The Author(s) 2020; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

PY - 2020

Y1 - 2020

N2 - BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to particulate matter <2.5 μm in size (PM2.5) is considered a risk factor for premature death. However, only a few studies have been conducted in areas with moderate PM2.5 concentrations. Moreover, an ageing society may be more susceptible to environmental exposure and future burden of mortality due to PM2.5.METHODS: This study estimates hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality from long-term exposure to moderate PM2.5 concentrations in the elderly populations of seven cities in South Korea. We also projected nationwide elderly mortality caused by long-term exposure to PM2.5, accounting for population ageing until 2045. Mortality in 1 720 230 elderly adults aged ≥65 years in 2008 was monitored across 2009-16 and linked to modelled PM2.5 concentrations.RESULTS: A total of 421 100 deaths occurred in 2009-16, and the mean of annual PM2.5 concentration ranged between 21.1 and 31.9 μg/m3 in most regions. The overall HR for a 10 μg/m3 increase in a 36-month PM2.5 moving average was 1.024 (95% confidence intervals: 1.009, 1.039). We estimated that 11 833 all-cause nationwide elderly deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Annual death tolls may increase to 17 948 by 2045. However, if PM2.5 is reduced to 5 μg/m3 by 2045, the tolls may show a lower increase to 3646.CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to moderately high levels of PM2.5 was associated with increased mortality risk among the elderly. Thus, PM2.5 reduction in response to the projected ageing-associated mortality in South Korea is critical.

AB - BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to particulate matter <2.5 μm in size (PM2.5) is considered a risk factor for premature death. However, only a few studies have been conducted in areas with moderate PM2.5 concentrations. Moreover, an ageing society may be more susceptible to environmental exposure and future burden of mortality due to PM2.5.METHODS: This study estimates hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cause-specific mortality from long-term exposure to moderate PM2.5 concentrations in the elderly populations of seven cities in South Korea. We also projected nationwide elderly mortality caused by long-term exposure to PM2.5, accounting for population ageing until 2045. Mortality in 1 720 230 elderly adults aged ≥65 years in 2008 was monitored across 2009-16 and linked to modelled PM2.5 concentrations.RESULTS: A total of 421 100 deaths occurred in 2009-16, and the mean of annual PM2.5 concentration ranged between 21.1 and 31.9 μg/m3 in most regions. The overall HR for a 10 μg/m3 increase in a 36-month PM2.5 moving average was 1.024 (95% confidence intervals: 1.009, 1.039). We estimated that 11 833 all-cause nationwide elderly deaths were attributable to PM2.5 exposure. Annual death tolls may increase to 17 948 by 2045. However, if PM2.5 is reduced to 5 μg/m3 by 2045, the tolls may show a lower increase to 3646.CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to moderately high levels of PM2.5 was associated with increased mortality risk among the elderly. Thus, PM2.5 reduction in response to the projected ageing-associated mortality in South Korea is critical.

U2 - 10.1093/ije/dyaa146

DO - 10.1093/ije/dyaa146

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 33079997

VL - 49

SP - 1792

EP - 1801

JO - International Journal of Epidemiology

JF - International Journal of Epidemiology

SN - 0300-5771

IS - 6

ER -