Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil

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  • Darlan S. Candido
  • Ingra M. Claro
  • Jaqueline G. de Jesus
  • William M. Souza
  • Filipe R.R. Moreira
  • Simon Dellicour
  • Thomas A. Mellan
  • Louis du Plessis
  • Rafael H.M. Pereira
  • Flavia C.S. Sales
  • Erika R. Manuli
  • Julien Thézé
  • Luiz Almeida
  • Mariane T. Menezes
  • Carolina M. Voloch
  • Marcilio J. Fumagalli
  • Thaís M. Coletti
  • Camila A.M. da Silva
  • Mariana S. Ramundo
  • Mariene R. Amorim
  • Henrique H. Hoeltgebaum
  • Swapnil Mishra
  • Mandev S. Gill
  • Luiz M. Carvalho
  • Lewis F. Buss
  • Carlos A. Prete
  • Jordan Ashworth
  • Helder I. Nakaya
  • Pedro S. Peixoto
  • Oliver J. Brady
  • Samuel M. Nicholls
  • Amilcar Tanuri
  • Átila D. Rossi
  • Carlos K.V. Braga
  • Alexandra L. Gerber
  • Ana Paula C. de Guimarães
  • Nelson Gaburo
  • Cecila Salete Alencar
  • Alessandro C.S. Ferreira
  • Cristiano X. Lima
  • José Eduardo Levi
  • Celso Granato
  • Giulia M. Ferreira
  • Ronaldo S. Francisco
  • Fabiana Granja
  • Marcia T. Garcia
  • Maria Luiza Moretti
  • Mauricio W. Perroud
  • Terezinha M.P.P. Castiñeiras
  • Carolina S. Lazari
  • Sarah C. Hill
  • Andreza Aruska de Souza Santos
  • Camila L. Simeoni
  • Julia Forato
  • Andrei C. Sposito
  • Angelica Z. Schreiber
  • Magnun N.N. Santos
  • Camila Zolini de Sá
  • Renan P. Souza
  • Luciana C. Resende-Moreira
  • Mauro M. Teixeira
  • Josy Hubner
  • Patricia A.F. Leme
  • Rennan G. Moreira
  • Maurício L. Nogueira
  • Neil M. Ferguson
  • Silvia F. Costa
  • José Luiz Proenca-Modena
  • Ana Tereza R. Vasconcelos
  • Philippe Lemey
  • Chieh Hsi Wu
  • Andrew Rambaut
  • Nick J. Loman
  • Renato S. Aguiar
  • Oliver G. Pybus
  • Ester C. Sabino
  • Nuno Rodrigues Faria
Brazil currently has one of the fastest-growing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics in the world. Because of limited available data, assessments of the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on this virus spread remain challenging. Using a mobility-driven transmission model, we show that NPIs reduced the reproduction number from >3 to 1 to 1.6 in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Sequencing of 427 new genomes and analysis of a geographically representative genomic dataset identified >100 international virus introductions in Brazil. We estimate that most (76%) of the Brazilian strains fell in three clades that were introduced from Europe between 22 February and 11 March 2020. During the early epidemic phase, we found that SARS-CoV-2 spread mostly locally and within state borders. After this period, despite sharp decreases in air travel, we estimated multiple exportations from large urban centers that coincided with a 25% increase in average traveled distances in national flights. This study sheds new light on the epidemic transmission and evolutionary trajectories of SARS-CoV-2 lineages in Brazil and provides evidence that current interventions remain insufficient to keep virus transmission under control in this country.
Original languageEnglish
JournalScience
Volume369
Issue number6508
Pages (from-to)1255-1260
Number of pages6
ISSN0036-8075
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 4 Sep 2020
Externally publishedYes

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