On the optimal 'lockdown' during an epidemic

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • Martin Gonzalez-Eiras
  • Dirk Niepelt
We embed a lockdown choice in a simplified epidemiological model and derive formulas for the optimal lockdown intensity and duration. The optimal policy reflects the rate of time preference, epidemiological factors, the hazard rate of vaccine discovery, learning effects in the health care sector, and the severity of output losses due to a lockdown. In our baseline specification a Covid-19 shock as currently experienced by the US optimally triggers a reduction in economic activity by two thirds, for about 50 days, or approximately 9.5 percent of annual GDP.
Original languageEnglish
Article number4
JournalCovid Economics
Volume1
Issue number7
Pages (from-to)72-91
Number of pages20
Publication statusPublished - 20 Apr 2020

ID: 280289026