Accelerating inference for diffusions observed with measurement error and large sample sizes using approximate Bayesian computation

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

In recent years, dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However, it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large data sets and complex models. This paper considers a nonlinear stochastic differential equation model observed with correlated measurement errors and an application to protein folding modelling. An approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)-MCMC algorithm is suggested to allow inference for model parameters within reasonable time constraints. The ABC algorithm uses simulations of ‘subsamples’ from the assumed data-generating model as well as a so-called ‘early-rejection’ strategy to speed up computations in the ABC-MCMC sampler. Using a considerate amount of subsamples does not seem to degrade the quality of the inferential results for the considered applications. A simulation study is conducted to compare our strategy with exact Bayesian inference, the latter resulting two orders of magnitude slower than ABC-MCMC for the considered set-up. Finally, the ABC algorithm is applied to a large size protein data. The suggested methodology is fairly general and not limited to the exemplified model and data.

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Statistical Computation and Simulation
Volume86
Issue number1
Pages (from-to)195–213
Number of pages19
ISSN0094-9655
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

    Research areas

  • likelihood-free inference, MCMC, protein folding, stochastic differential equation

ID: 135268064