Paris Agreement could help world avoid 57 hot days each year, study finds

Heatwaves are silent killers causing massive impacts around the world. The 2015 Paris Agreement could help the world avoid 57 hot days if countries follow through on their emission-cutting plans and limit warming this century to 2.6°C, a new study has found.

The report by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution shows the historic accord can help the world move toward a safer climate. However, the researchers warn that 2.6°C will still subject future generations to dangerous heat, cause severe health impacts, and widen inequality. They call for stronger commitments and policies to accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels and keep warming well below 2°C.

Read about the study here 'Ten Years of the Paris Agreement: The Present and Future of Extreme Heat'

Key findings include:

• At 4°C of warming - the baseline level used in 2015 before the agreement was signed - the world would have experienced an average of 114 hot days per year. 
• Today, if countries successfully deliver on their current emission plans and limit warming to 2.6°C, the world could experience 57 fewer hot days annually. 
• Six recent heat events that scorched countries around the world would be about 5 to 75 times more likely than today at 4°C, but 3 to 35 times more likely at 2.6°C.
• Keeping warming well below 2°C is vital as heat becomes more dangerous with every fraction of a degree. Since 2015, an increase of 0.3°C has resulted in 11 more hot days globally and made heatwaves around the world much more likely, including by ten times in the Amazon, nine times in Mali and Burkina Faso, and two times in India and Pakistan. 
• Adaptation finance is limited, and investments in early warning systems and action plans are still limited in many cities and countries.

Adaptation is a core part of the Paris Agreement, and measures to boost resilience to heat have improved since 2015, the study highlights. Heat is the deadliest type of weather, causing an estimated half a million deaths each year. Historically, however, heat’s danger has been underappreciated because the impacts are less visible than those of other extreme weather events.

We need to move from survival to transformative adaptation. 

The researchers say campaigns and initiatives have helped boost global awareness about the threat of extreme heat, and more countries have developed early warning systems and heat action plans, which are highly effective at reducing heat deaths. Today, about half of all countries have warning systems, and at least 47 have action plans in place. 

To further improve global adaptation to heat, the researchers say that many countries in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia still need to develop early warning systems and heat–health plans. They also emphasise the importance of national weather services issuing heat warnings. Only half currently do so worldwide. Long-term solutions, such as increasing shaded areas and trees in cities and strengthening health systems, are also essential to lower heat risks.

Emmanuel Raju, Director of Copenhagen Centre for Disaster Research at the University of Copenhagen, said: 

“The majority of the world, primarily in low resource settings, are barely coping with extreme heat. This is a problem of injustice as people are pushed beyond their limits to cope and adapt. 

“We do know the full picture of visible and invisible impacts and the loss and damage of extreme heat.  We need to move from survival to transformative adaptation. 

“The only way forward is to cut emissions, & make better commitments. More financing for adaptation; loss and damage is key to secure lives, livelihoods and society.