TY - JOUR

T1 - Benefit-to-harm ratio of the Danish breast cancer screening programme

AU - Beau, Anna-Belle

AU - Lynge, Elsebeth

AU - Njor, Sisse Helle

AU - Vejborg, Ilse

AU - Lophaven, Søren Nymand

N1 - © 2017 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

PY - 2017/8/1

Y1 - 2017/8/1

N2 - The primary aim of breast cancer screening is to reduce breast cancer mortality, but screening also has negative side-effects as overdiagnosis. To evaluate a screening programme, both benefits and harms should be considered. Published estimates of the benefit-to-harm ratio, the number of breast cancer deaths prevented divided by the number of overdiagnosed breast cancer cases, varied considerably. The objective of the study was to estimate the benefit-to-harm ratio of breast cancer screening in Denmark. The numbers of breast cancer deaths prevented and overdiagnosed cases [invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)] were estimated per 1,000 women aged 50-79, using national published estimates for breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis, and national incidence and mortality rates. Estimations were made for both invited and screened women. Among 1,000 women invited to screening from age 50 to age 69 and followed until age 79, we estimated that 5.4 breast cancer deaths would be prevented and 2.1 cases overdiagnosed, under the observed scenario in Denmark of a breast cancer mortality reduction of 23.4% and 2.3% of the breast cancer cases being overdiagnosed. The estimated benefit-to-harm ratio was 2.6 for invited women and 2.5 for screened women. Hence, 2-3 women would be prevented from dying from breast cancer for every woman overdiagnosed with invasive breast cancer or DCIS. The difference between the previous published ratios and 2.6 for Denmark is probably more a reflection of the accuracy of the underlying estimates than of the actual screening programmes. Therefore, benefit-to-harm ratios should be used cautiously.

AB - The primary aim of breast cancer screening is to reduce breast cancer mortality, but screening also has negative side-effects as overdiagnosis. To evaluate a screening programme, both benefits and harms should be considered. Published estimates of the benefit-to-harm ratio, the number of breast cancer deaths prevented divided by the number of overdiagnosed breast cancer cases, varied considerably. The objective of the study was to estimate the benefit-to-harm ratio of breast cancer screening in Denmark. The numbers of breast cancer deaths prevented and overdiagnosed cases [invasive and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)] were estimated per 1,000 women aged 50-79, using national published estimates for breast cancer mortality and overdiagnosis, and national incidence and mortality rates. Estimations were made for both invited and screened women. Among 1,000 women invited to screening from age 50 to age 69 and followed until age 79, we estimated that 5.4 breast cancer deaths would be prevented and 2.1 cases overdiagnosed, under the observed scenario in Denmark of a breast cancer mortality reduction of 23.4% and 2.3% of the breast cancer cases being overdiagnosed. The estimated benefit-to-harm ratio was 2.6 for invited women and 2.5 for screened women. Hence, 2-3 women would be prevented from dying from breast cancer for every woman overdiagnosed with invasive breast cancer or DCIS. The difference between the previous published ratios and 2.6 for Denmark is probably more a reflection of the accuracy of the underlying estimates than of the actual screening programmes. Therefore, benefit-to-harm ratios should be used cautiously.

U2 - 10.1002/ijc.30758

DO - 10.1002/ijc.30758

M3 - Journal article

C2 - 28470685

VL - 141

SP - 512

EP - 518

JO - International Journal of Cancer

JF - International Journal of Cancer

SN - 0020-7136

IS - 3

ER -