Prognostic Score for Predicting Risk of Dementia Over 10 Years While Accounting for Competing Risk of Death
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Prognostic Score for Predicting Risk of Dementia Over 10 Years While Accounting for Competing Risk of Death. / Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène; Blanche, Paul Frédéric; Chary, Emilie; Loubère, Lucie; Amieva, Hélène; Dartigues, Jean François.
In: American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 180, No. 8, 15.10.2014, p. 790-798.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Prognostic Score for Predicting Risk of Dementia Over 10 Years While Accounting for Competing Risk of Death
AU - Jacqmin-Gadda, Hélène
AU - Blanche, Paul Frédéric
AU - Chary, Emilie
AU - Loubère, Lucie
AU - Amieva, Hélène
AU - Dartigues, Jean François
PY - 2014/10/15
Y1 - 2014/10/15
N2 - Early detection of subjects at high risk of developing dementia is essential. By dealing with censoring and competing risk of death, we developed a score for predicting 10-year dementia risk by combining cognitive tests, and we assessed whether inclusion of cognitive change over the previous year increased its discrimination. Data came from the French prospective cohort study Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) and included 3,777 subjects aged 65 years or older (1988-1998). The combined prediction score was estimated by means of an illness-death model handling interval censoring and competing risk of death. Its predictive ability was measured using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with 2 different definitions depending on the way subjects who died without a dementia diagnosis were considered. To account for right-censoring and interval censoring, we estimated the ROC curves by means of a weighting approach and a model-based imputation estimator. The combined score exhibited an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.81 for discriminating future demented subjects from subjects alive and nondemented 10 years later and an AUROC of 0.75 for discriminating future demented subjects from all other subjects (including deceased persons). Adjustment for cognitive change over the previous year did not improve prediction.
AB - Early detection of subjects at high risk of developing dementia is essential. By dealing with censoring and competing risk of death, we developed a score for predicting 10-year dementia risk by combining cognitive tests, and we assessed whether inclusion of cognitive change over the previous year increased its discrimination. Data came from the French prospective cohort study Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) and included 3,777 subjects aged 65 years or older (1988-1998). The combined prediction score was estimated by means of an illness-death model handling interval censoring and competing risk of death. Its predictive ability was measured using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, with 2 different definitions depending on the way subjects who died without a dementia diagnosis were considered. To account for right-censoring and interval censoring, we estimated the ROC curves by means of a weighting approach and a model-based imputation estimator. The combined score exhibited an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.81 for discriminating future demented subjects from subjects alive and nondemented 10 years later and an AUROC of 0.75 for discriminating future demented subjects from all other subjects (including deceased persons). Adjustment for cognitive change over the previous year did not improve prediction.
KW - competing risks
KW - death
KW - dementia
KW - interval censoring
KW - prediction
KW - ROC curve
U2 - 10.1093/aje/kwu202
DO - 10.1093/aje/kwu202
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 25190680
AN - SCOPUS:84921741058
VL - 180
SP - 790
EP - 798
JO - American Journal of Epidemiology
JF - American Journal of Epidemiology
SN - 0002-9262
IS - 8
ER -
ID: 138169207