Risk prediction is improved by adding markers of subclinical organ damage to SCORE
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
AIMS: It is unclear whether subclinical vascular damage adds significantly to Systemic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk stratification in healthy subjects. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a population-based sample of 1968 subjects without cardiovascular disease or diabetes not receiving any cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, or lipid-lowering treatment, aged 41, 51, 61, or 71 years, we measured traditional cardiovascular risk factors, left ventricular (LV) mass index, atherosclerotic plaques in the carotid arteries, carotid/femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV), and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (UACR) and followed them for a median of 12.8 years. Eighty-one subjects died because of cardiovascular causes. Risk of cardiovascular death was independently of SCORE associated with LV hypertrophy [hazard ratio (HR) 2.2 (95% CI 1.2-4.0)], plaques [HR 2.5 (1.6-4.0)], UACR > or = 90th percentile [HR 3.3 (1.8-5.9)], PWV > 12 m/s [HR 1.9 (1.1-3.3) for SCORE > or = 5% and 7.3 (3.2-16.1) for SCORE < 5%]. Restricting primary prevention to subjects with SCORE > or = 5% as well as subclinical organ damage, increased specificity of risk prediction from 75 to 81% (P < 0.002), but reduced sensitivity from 72 to 65% (P = 0.4). Broaden primary prevention from subjects with SCORE > or = 5% to include subjects with 1% < or = SCORE < 5% together with subclinical organ damage increased sensitivity from 72 to 89% (P = 0.006), but reduced specificity from 75 to 57% (P < 0.002) and positive predictive value from 11 to 8% (P = 0.07). CONCLUSION: Subclinical organ damage predicted cardiovascular death independently of SCORE and the combination may improve risk prediction.
Original language | English |
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Journal | European Heart Journal |
Volume | 31 |
Issue number | 7 |
Pages (from-to) | 883-91 |
Number of pages | 9 |
ISSN | 0195-668X |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2010 |
ID: 21458690