Severe mortality impact of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
INTRODUCTION: Epidemiological studies of the 1957 influenza pandemic are scarce, particularly from lower income settings.
METHODS: We analyzed the spatial-temporal mortality patterns of the 1957 influenza pandemic in Chile including detailed age-specific mortality data from a large city and investigated risk factors for severe mortality impact across regions.
RESULTS: Chile exhibited two waves of excess mortality in winter 1957 and 1959 with a cumulative excess mortality rate of 12 per 10,000, and a ~10-fold mortality difference across provinces. High excess-mortality rates were associated with high baseline mortality (R2=41.8%; P=0.02), but not with latitude (P>0.7). Excess mortality rates increased sharply with age. Transmissibility declined from R=1.4-2.1 to R=1.2-1.4 between the two pandemic waves.
CONCLUSIONS: The estimated A/H2N2 mortality burden in Chile is the highest on record for this pandemic - about 3-5 times as severe as that experienced in wealthier nations. The global impact of this pandemic may be substantially underestimated from previous studies based on high-income countries.
Original language | English |
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Journal | Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses |
Volume | 11 |
Issue number | 3 |
Pages (from-to) | 230–239 |
ISSN | 1750-2640 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - May 2017 |
ID: 171796111